Current Position: 28 26.026’S 32 47.049’E; Timezone: UTC+2; SOG: 5.4; COG: 257 (HDG 270 and 2.2 kt current 260); TWS: 16; TWD: 75; P (6:00): 1023.1; P (12:00): 1021.0; P (18:00): 1016.6; P (24:00): 1020.1; Distance to Waypoint (Richards Bay): 47; Total Miles Sailed: 15522 nm; Engine Hours: 311; Estimate Fuel: 11 +15+50;
Comments: It is 5:30. The contrast between the sea state yesterday at this time and today is breathtaking. It is impossible to believe this is the same planet. The current has rotated from 360 to 330. I changed my course from a more northerly one to due E to try to catch the southerly current. I am averaging 6.1 kt with 168 nm to go to RBay. I am in the middle of the costal shipping lane, so will need to be attentive. It now appears that Greij is going to RBay and is paying a price for going too far S. They will loose the wind before I do and what they have will drive them in a deep broad reach instead of the beam reach I should have. It looks like they will arrive in the morning. At 7:00 I changed my course to 280 (the same direction as the current). I am averaging 6 kt in a close haul. I have already begun to explore the next passage. From RBay, I plan to sail to Port Elizabeth. PE will be my stepping stone to Houtbaai (Cape Town) where I will haul out and do a significant amount of work in preparation for the second half (closer to one-third) of my trip. Arriving sometime the last two weeks of November, I will be in Houtbaai the better part of a month. During that time I will rent an apartment, rent a car, and Stacey will visit for two weeks beginning the second week of December. I hope to have my work on the boat completed by then, so I can have a proper break. When I check out of South Africa, I will skip busy Cape Town and check out of Saldanha Bay to the north, which only became an option last year. The passenger vessel Island Sky passed 2 nm port to port at 8:15. By 10:00, the 20s were gone and tge wind was blowing 15-18. I unfurled most of the Yankee. However, concerned about the integrity of the second reefing line, I waited to shake it out to be certain the 20s were gone. Consequently,, the SOG dropped to 5.9. It is 145 nm to RBay. To get there by 15:00 tomorrow, I need to average 145/29=5 kt. I am concerned because it looks like single digit wind midnight to dawn. I woke up at 15:00 after a 3h nap! I had woken up periodically to check the AIS, but fell back asleep each time. It is 3h before sundown and I am 120 nm from RBay. The sky is without a single cloud! To allow enough time to navigate the harbor and dock before dark, I need to travel at 120/24=5 kt average speed in the next 24. With 15 kt of wind, I am making 5.1 kt now. However, the wind will be more like 10 kt between 22:00-7:00 (9h) before the 20+ kt gusts return for the remainder of the passage around 10:00. I am reluctant to do so, but I may need to shake out the second reef tonight (pray the line holds later) and put the second reef back in at dawn. I am holding off for now because I am still seeing gusts close to 20. At 16:30 the SOG dropped to below 5, so I shook out the second reef. I had to swing the boom out to balance the sails enough for the TillerPilot to hold the course. This is when I really miss the windvane. I’m not really going any faster as a consequence. However, the wind is going to back tonight and before dawn I will need to tack to the starboard. Having the boom out will help me downwind performance later. It may all come out in the wash. The wind backed rapidly to 125 at dusk. I also lost the advantage of the current, reducing the SOG to 4.5 kt. Around midnight the wind is supposed to back tonight 80 then continue to back to 20 around dawn. At midnight I should be about 30 nm from the coast. If I were to tack and motorsail, I could pick up the Agulhas current about 15 nm offshore. At that pound I could drop the mainsail and ride the current downwind with just the foresails. The wind is supposed to build to 20 with gusts of 25 then, so conditions should be perfect to run on the current. Also, I like the idea of dropping the mainsail when the wind is blowing 10 rather than at the last minute in 25 kt gusts and a 2.5 kt current. It is 18:30 and I have a cargo ship headed straight for my bow on the opposite course. It diverted course without contacting me and we passed port to port at 19:00. The projected wind direction puts me in a bind … either heading out to sea (adding 25 nm) to and coming in from the E (and across the Agulhas current … bad idea) or settle for a very deep reach (practically a run) in single-digit winds (which means basically completely under the control of the currents and conditions under which the TillerPilot would certainly struggle). I am opting for plan “C” … stow the mainsail, position myself in the middle of the Agulhas current, and use my foresails in a run. It is 22:30 and I won’t have sufficient wind until perhaps 3:00, (when I will have 13-17 kt winds from 30 degrees) which means I have about 5h to get into position (about 28s 33e), about 25 nm from where I am right now. The only way I can get there in these 8 kt winds is by motor sailing. The models are showing 1.5-2 kt currents. I should be able to get the rest from the wind, particularly after midmorning when gusts in the mid-20s are expected. It is almost midnight and the wind speed has dropped to 3 kt. I have definitely made the right call (unless I want to spend another half day becalmed). By 3:00 I was apparently in position, 60 nm from RBay and the current was 1.5 kt. The wind was back to double-digits 10-12 kt from 90. It was supposed to be 36 by now, I downloaded a new GRIB and not much had changed. It suggested I should start seeing 20 kt gusts by 8:00 (5h) from 10 and sustained 20 kt winds by 10:00 (7h) or so. It is 4:30, sunrise in 30m, and I am 50 nm from the passage to the bay. I am 17 nm from the coast. The wind is blowing 15 from 75 and I have a 2.1 kt current. Sunrise was at 4:49. The wind is 15 from 60 and I am making 5.5 kt wing on wing with the Yankee to port and the storm staysail to starboard. My plan has worked. This is the slowest I will go. I expect to arrive within 46/5.5=8.4h, before 13:30. My guess is before noon.
Comments: It is 5:30. The contrast between the sea state yesterday at this time and today is breathtaking. It is impossible to believe this is the same planet. The current has rotated from 360 to 330. I changed my course from a more northerly one to due E to try to catch the southerly current. I am averaging 6.1 kt with 168 nm to go to RBay. I am in the middle of the costal shipping lane, so will need to be attentive. It now appears that Greij is going to RBay and is paying a price for going too far S. They will loose the wind before I do and what they have will drive them in a deep broad reach instead of the beam reach I should have. It looks like they will arrive in the morning. At 7:00 I changed my course to 280 (the same direction as the current). I am averaging 6 kt in a close haul. I have already begun to explore the next passage. From RBay, I plan to sail to Port Elizabeth. PE will be my stepping stone to Houtbaai (Cape Town) where I will haul out and do a significant amount of work in preparation for the second half (closer to one-third) of my trip. Arriving sometime the last two weeks of November, I will be in Houtbaai the better part of a month. During that time I will rent an apartment, rent a car, and Stacey will visit for two weeks beginning the second week of December. I hope to have my work on the boat completed by then, so I can have a proper break. When I check out of South Africa, I will skip busy Cape Town and check out of Saldanha Bay to the north, which only became an option last year. The passenger vessel Island Sky passed 2 nm port to port at 8:15. By 10:00, the 20s were gone and tge wind was blowing 15-18. I unfurled most of the Yankee. However, concerned about the integrity of the second reefing line, I waited to shake it out to be certain the 20s were gone. Consequently,, the SOG dropped to 5.9. It is 145 nm to RBay. To get there by 15:00 tomorrow, I need to average 145/29=5 kt. I am concerned because it looks like single digit wind midnight to dawn. I woke up at 15:00 after a 3h nap! I had woken up periodically to check the AIS, but fell back asleep each time. It is 3h before sundown and I am 120 nm from RBay. The sky is without a single cloud! To allow enough time to navigate the harbor and dock before dark, I need to travel at 120/24=5 kt average speed in the next 24. With 15 kt of wind, I am making 5.1 kt now. However, the wind will be more like 10 kt between 22:00-7:00 (9h) before the 20+ kt gusts return for the remainder of the passage around 10:00. I am reluctant to do so, but I may need to shake out the second reef tonight (pray the line holds later) and put the second reef back in at dawn. I am holding off for now because I am still seeing gusts close to 20. At 16:30 the SOG dropped to below 5, so I shook out the second reef. I had to swing the boom out to balance the sails enough for the TillerPilot to hold the course. This is when I really miss the windvane. I’m not really going any faster as a consequence. However, the wind is going to back tonight and before dawn I will need to tack to the starboard. Having the boom out will help me downwind performance later. It may all come out in the wash. The wind backed rapidly to 125 at dusk. I also lost the advantage of the current, reducing the SOG to 4.5 kt. Around midnight the wind is supposed to back tonight 80 then continue to back to 20 around dawn. At midnight I should be about 30 nm from the coast. If I were to tack and motorsail, I could pick up the Agulhas current about 15 nm offshore. At that pound I could drop the mainsail and ride the current downwind with just the foresails. The wind is supposed to build to 20 with gusts of 25 then, so conditions should be perfect to run on the current. Also, I like the idea of dropping the mainsail when the wind is blowing 10 rather than at the last minute in 25 kt gusts and a 2.5 kt current. It is 18:30 and I have a cargo ship headed straight for my bow on the opposite course. It diverted course without contacting me and we passed port to port at 19:00. The projected wind direction puts me in a bind … either heading out to sea (adding 25 nm) to and coming in from the E (and across the Agulhas current … bad idea) or settle for a very deep reach (practically a run) in single-digit winds (which means basically completely under the control of the currents and conditions under which the TillerPilot would certainly struggle). I am opting for plan “C” … stow the mainsail, position myself in the middle of the Agulhas current, and use my foresails in a run. It is 22:30 and I won’t have sufficient wind until perhaps 3:00, (when I will have 13-17 kt winds from 30 degrees) which means I have about 5h to get into position (about 28s 33e), about 25 nm from where I am right now. The only way I can get there in these 8 kt winds is by motor sailing. The models are showing 1.5-2 kt currents. I should be able to get the rest from the wind, particularly after midmorning when gusts in the mid-20s are expected. It is almost midnight and the wind speed has dropped to 3 kt. I have definitely made the right call (unless I want to spend another half day becalmed). By 3:00 I was apparently in position, 60 nm from RBay and the current was 1.5 kt. The wind was back to double-digits 10-12 kt from 90. It was supposed to be 36 by now, I downloaded a new GRIB and not much had changed. It suggested I should start seeing 20 kt gusts by 8:00 (5h) from 10 and sustained 20 kt winds by 10:00 (7h) or so. It is 4:30, sunrise in 30m, and I am 50 nm from the passage to the bay. I am 17 nm from the coast. The wind is blowing 15 from 75 and I have a 2.1 kt current. Sunrise was at 4:49. The wind is 15 from 60 and I am making 5.5 kt wing on wing with the Yankee to port and the storm staysail to starboard. My plan has worked. This is the slowest I will go. I expect to arrive within 46/5.5=8.4h, before 13:30. My guess is before noon.