Current Position: 12 19.999’S 126 19.986’E; Local Timezone: UTC+8 SOG: 4.0; COG: 240; TWS: 6 17 kt; TWD: 124; Distance to Waypoint (Ashmore Reef, 270): 201; Total Miles Sailed: 9777 nm; Engine Hours: 230; Estimate Fuel: 60+10+50;
Comments: About 16:00, I finally started to see some sustained double-digit winds (10-11 kt) that veered from 90 to 120, as predicted, so I changed to a heading of 250. At 17:15, just before sunset (in 10m), I noticed rain clouds forming upwind. The CAPE is very low. It would be nice to get some rain to wash the salt off the boat. The wind was still 10 kt from 115, but the boat was doing less than 2 kt because it was running against a 1 kt current. As the clouds approached it started to look and feel more like a front as the wind veered to 135, as predicted by the forecast. I was able to change my heading to 255. As the front blew through the wind picked up to 15 (as predicted) and there were isolated rain showers. The ABF contacted me again about 18:00 … the fourth time in 24h. I went to sleep at 19:30 and set an alarm for 2h. When I woke the boat was doing nearly 5 kt in 11 kt wind aided by a favorable current. The wind veered, allowing me to set a course for the waypoint at 271. I set a 90m alarm. By 23:00 the wind had slowed to 6 kt as predicted and was coming from the S. If the forecast holds, wind will return in the morning. I set a 90m alarm. At 2:00 I was awaken by the TillerPilot alarm because there was no wind to steer. There was a tug 8 nm away and heading towards me, but it was going cross the stern by several nm.2. This decrease in wind was predicted. The wind is supposed to increase in about 2h. I set a wind alarm to alert me. I downloaded new GRIBs at 3:00. Now they are suggesting there will be no wind until midmorning. I looked at the long-range AIS … nothing but the tug that was about to pass me … so I set an alarm and went back to sleep 2h. The alarm briefly went off at 4:30, but there was not stable wind, so I went back to sleep. Sunrise should be about 5:55. At 5:15, on queue with the orange glow on the horizon, the wind alarm went off. The wind had stabilized direction at 3-6 kt and I set a course for 290. I was only making 1 kt against a partial current, but at least I was moving forward. I had drifted backwards 2 nm since 2:00. I was enjoying my tea in the cockpit when the sun rose at 5:52. The wind was barely blowing hard enough to maintain the course, but it was expected to increase in a couple of hours. I ate the last banana yesterday and had to throw out the last of the bread, which had gone moldy … it never lasts more than five days. I also finished off yesterday the last of the meals I had prepared for the passage. I am going to eat the last of the yogurt for breakfast this morning. I will be switching to my usual staples … oatmeal, eggs, pasta, and the like. It might also be time to drop a line in the water, if the boat can manage enough speed later to tow a lure. It is 6:05 and the morning breeze has already petered out. The boat speed is 0.0. It is supposed to pick up in a couple of hours. By 7:00 I had steady 7 kt wind from the S, as predicted, and the boat was making 2.5 kt towards the waypoint and I dropped a line in the water. Around noon, I am supposed to see gusts of 20, so I won’t try to launch the asymm today. By 8:00 I started to see wind speeds of 10 and SOG over 4, so was able to switch to the windvane. It feels good not to hear the motor of the TillerPilot, only the sounds of the water. It is time to begin thinking about the approach to Ashborn. PW route generally have me approaching the W side from the N, but I do not have a chart for that and I know there is some sort of reef there from the low-resolution Navionics. I have a chart for a SE approach. I looked through my other charts to see if I by chance had one of this area, but I do not, so I will approach from the SW while avoiding Cartier Island. It is unclear at this point whether I will clear Cartier to the N or S. To the N are shallow banks, but they appear to be non-threatening except for one spot that is 9’. By 9:30 I had sustained 10-11 kt winds, as predicted, and the SOG was over 5. The ABF tried to reach me at 10:00, but the transmission was unclear. At the same time the wind started to veer and the velocity increased to 14-15, as expected, so I adjusted the windvane. The distance sailed towards Ashmore Reef in the last 24h was 256-201=56 nm. The total distance sailed was 9777-9738=39 nm (39/24=1.6 kt avg.). Note this discrepancy is due to the current.
Comments: About 16:00, I finally started to see some sustained double-digit winds (10-11 kt) that veered from 90 to 120, as predicted, so I changed to a heading of 250. At 17:15, just before sunset (in 10m), I noticed rain clouds forming upwind. The CAPE is very low. It would be nice to get some rain to wash the salt off the boat. The wind was still 10 kt from 115, but the boat was doing less than 2 kt because it was running against a 1 kt current. As the clouds approached it started to look and feel more like a front as the wind veered to 135, as predicted by the forecast. I was able to change my heading to 255. As the front blew through the wind picked up to 15 (as predicted) and there were isolated rain showers. The ABF contacted me again about 18:00 … the fourth time in 24h. I went to sleep at 19:30 and set an alarm for 2h. When I woke the boat was doing nearly 5 kt in 11 kt wind aided by a favorable current. The wind veered, allowing me to set a course for the waypoint at 271. I set a 90m alarm. By 23:00 the wind had slowed to 6 kt as predicted and was coming from the S. If the forecast holds, wind will return in the morning. I set a 90m alarm. At 2:00 I was awaken by the TillerPilot alarm because there was no wind to steer. There was a tug 8 nm away and heading towards me, but it was going cross the stern by several nm.2. This decrease in wind was predicted. The wind is supposed to increase in about 2h. I set a wind alarm to alert me. I downloaded new GRIBs at 3:00. Now they are suggesting there will be no wind until midmorning. I looked at the long-range AIS … nothing but the tug that was about to pass me … so I set an alarm and went back to sleep 2h. The alarm briefly went off at 4:30, but there was not stable wind, so I went back to sleep. Sunrise should be about 5:55. At 5:15, on queue with the orange glow on the horizon, the wind alarm went off. The wind had stabilized direction at 3-6 kt and I set a course for 290. I was only making 1 kt against a partial current, but at least I was moving forward. I had drifted backwards 2 nm since 2:00. I was enjoying my tea in the cockpit when the sun rose at 5:52. The wind was barely blowing hard enough to maintain the course, but it was expected to increase in a couple of hours. I ate the last banana yesterday and had to throw out the last of the bread, which had gone moldy … it never lasts more than five days. I also finished off yesterday the last of the meals I had prepared for the passage. I am going to eat the last of the yogurt for breakfast this morning. I will be switching to my usual staples … oatmeal, eggs, pasta, and the like. It might also be time to drop a line in the water, if the boat can manage enough speed later to tow a lure. It is 6:05 and the morning breeze has already petered out. The boat speed is 0.0. It is supposed to pick up in a couple of hours. By 7:00 I had steady 7 kt wind from the S, as predicted, and the boat was making 2.5 kt towards the waypoint and I dropped a line in the water. Around noon, I am supposed to see gusts of 20, so I won’t try to launch the asymm today. By 8:00 I started to see wind speeds of 10 and SOG over 4, so was able to switch to the windvane. It feels good not to hear the motor of the TillerPilot, only the sounds of the water. It is time to begin thinking about the approach to Ashborn. PW route generally have me approaching the W side from the N, but I do not have a chart for that and I know there is some sort of reef there from the low-resolution Navionics. I have a chart for a SE approach. I looked through my other charts to see if I by chance had one of this area, but I do not, so I will approach from the SW while avoiding Cartier Island. It is unclear at this point whether I will clear Cartier to the N or S. To the N are shallow banks, but they appear to be non-threatening except for one spot that is 9’. By 9:30 I had sustained 10-11 kt winds, as predicted, and the SOG was over 5. The ABF tried to reach me at 10:00, but the transmission was unclear. At the same time the wind started to veer and the velocity increased to 14-15, as expected, so I adjusted the windvane. The distance sailed towards Ashmore Reef in the last 24h was 256-201=56 nm. The total distance sailed was 9777-9738=39 nm (39/24=1.6 kt avg.). Note this discrepancy is due to the current.