Current Position: 11 25.071’S 100 30.895’E; Local Timezone: UTC+7; SOG: 5.6 kt; COG: 239; TWS: 16 kt; TWD: 100; Distance to Waypoint (Cocos, 260): 217; Total Miles Sailed: 11357 nm; Engine Hours: 245; Estimate Fuel: 60+13+50;
Comments: It is 15:30 and I just downloaded a new GRIB and plotted a weather course. PW suggests a new arrival of about noon on Tuesday, probably because it underestimates the speed at night. Also new, it predicts the wind will start increasing about 22:00 tonight instead of dawn tomorrow, so I will be furling the asymm before dark. Sunset should be about 18:05. If the skies stay clear, it should be light enough until 19:00 to furl the asymm. I furled the asymm, lowered, and bagged it before it got dark. I also jibed to a new course if 285 (261 is the waypoints). I could sense the wind was stating to build, now firmly in the double-digits (11-14 kt) from due E. I made the right call to switch to the Yankee and was averaging 3.8 kt (half a kt slower than the asymm). If the forecast holds, I should be make 5-6 kt by midnight. I noted the sail furled smoothly this time. I think the trick is to make sure there is no slack in the torsion cable. It should be possible to unfurl the lower third when it comes time to patch the sail while I am at the Cocos. I passed an AIS for fishing nets about 21:00. By 22:00 the wind started to pick up 14-17 and the boat speed was 4.3 on a deep far reach. At 2:00 I tacked and shook out the second reef in 14-18 kt wind at 105 towards the waypoint at 257 doing about 5 kt. It is dawn and I am averaging 5.5 towards the waypoint in 17-19 kt wind from 109. I have 260 nm to go. I need to make the waypoint in about 57h to have time to make my way into the lagoon and anchor before dark on Tuesday. I’ll need to make 260/57=4.6 kt average between now and then to do that. I just downloaded a new GRIB and fortunately the wind is going to be at least as strong as it is now. Furthermore, it is expected to veer from 108 to 118, meaning it might be unnecessary to tack again and I should be able to steer a course towards the waypoint. I see Paradise Falls is about 100 nm ahead of me and should get to the Cocos tomorrow night. The weather forecast has me leaving the last of the thunderstorm warning areas in the next couple of hours. The first ship I have seen on the AIS during this passage is passing 40 nm in front of me at 7:00. There is another one that will come much closer in a couple of hours. The sparse traffic here is in sharp contrast to the past few months. I had my first flying fish on deck in ages. I collected it as bait in case I don’t land anything before the Cocos. The second ship showed up 30 nm away at 7:30. It looks like it is going to pass behind me. I visually spotted the second ship at 9:10 and it passed 6 nm behind me about 9:30. A third ship was on the AIS, but would pass even further away. There seems to be a N/S shipping lanes between 100-101E that I will soon be out of. The distance sailed towards Cocos in the last 24h was 316-217=99 nm. The total distance sailed was 11357-11257=100 nm (100/24=4.2 kt avg.). The discrepancy is due to the current. So far, the weather had behaved like forecasted for today. I am on track to arrive on Tuesday.
Comments: It is 15:30 and I just downloaded a new GRIB and plotted a weather course. PW suggests a new arrival of about noon on Tuesday, probably because it underestimates the speed at night. Also new, it predicts the wind will start increasing about 22:00 tonight instead of dawn tomorrow, so I will be furling the asymm before dark. Sunset should be about 18:05. If the skies stay clear, it should be light enough until 19:00 to furl the asymm. I furled the asymm, lowered, and bagged it before it got dark. I also jibed to a new course if 285 (261 is the waypoints). I could sense the wind was stating to build, now firmly in the double-digits (11-14 kt) from due E. I made the right call to switch to the Yankee and was averaging 3.8 kt (half a kt slower than the asymm). If the forecast holds, I should be make 5-6 kt by midnight. I noted the sail furled smoothly this time. I think the trick is to make sure there is no slack in the torsion cable. It should be possible to unfurl the lower third when it comes time to patch the sail while I am at the Cocos. I passed an AIS for fishing nets about 21:00. By 22:00 the wind started to pick up 14-17 and the boat speed was 4.3 on a deep far reach. At 2:00 I tacked and shook out the second reef in 14-18 kt wind at 105 towards the waypoint at 257 doing about 5 kt. It is dawn and I am averaging 5.5 towards the waypoint in 17-19 kt wind from 109. I have 260 nm to go. I need to make the waypoint in about 57h to have time to make my way into the lagoon and anchor before dark on Tuesday. I’ll need to make 260/57=4.6 kt average between now and then to do that. I just downloaded a new GRIB and fortunately the wind is going to be at least as strong as it is now. Furthermore, it is expected to veer from 108 to 118, meaning it might be unnecessary to tack again and I should be able to steer a course towards the waypoint. I see Paradise Falls is about 100 nm ahead of me and should get to the Cocos tomorrow night. The weather forecast has me leaving the last of the thunderstorm warning areas in the next couple of hours. The first ship I have seen on the AIS during this passage is passing 40 nm in front of me at 7:00. There is another one that will come much closer in a couple of hours. The sparse traffic here is in sharp contrast to the past few months. I had my first flying fish on deck in ages. I collected it as bait in case I don’t land anything before the Cocos. The second ship showed up 30 nm away at 7:30. It looks like it is going to pass behind me. I visually spotted the second ship at 9:10 and it passed 6 nm behind me about 9:30. A third ship was on the AIS, but would pass even further away. There seems to be a N/S shipping lanes between 100-101E that I will soon be out of. The distance sailed towards Cocos in the last 24h was 316-217=99 nm. The total distance sailed was 11357-11257=100 nm (100/24=4.2 kt avg.). The discrepancy is due to the current. So far, the weather had behaved like forecasted for today. I am on track to arrive on Tuesday.