Current Position: 12 16.771’S 127 17.899’E; Local Timezone: UTC+8 SOG: 1.2; COG: 310; TWS: 6 kt; TWD: 91; Distance to Waypoint (Ashmore Reef, 269): 357; Total Miles Sailed: 9738 nm; Engine Hours: 229; Estimate Fuel: 60+11+50;
Comments: Sunset was at 17:22. Remarkable, the wind has been going strong all day and it is still blowing 15 kt with a SOG of 4 that is about to be assisted by the current. This was not predicted by any of the eight weather models. The GRIB was 14h old, so I downloaded new ones. The forecast has once more completely changed. Double digit winds are expected overnight with sustained winds in the 20s all day tomorrow, starting out from the SE, then backing to the E later in the day. The wind strengths are different for each model, but they all forecast winds from the NE to SE. It is 18:15 and for some reason the waves have become higher, causing the boat to roll and the slatting of the sails. I switched from the TillerPilot to the windvane because it looks like there is going to be enough wind. I also set a more southerly course in an effort to take advantage of what wind I have and to try to stop the slatting of the sails. Also, if the wind turns E, I will probably be tacking. I went to sleep at 18:30. The wind was still blowing 15. At a 2h alarm, not much had changed. I set another 2h alarm and woke up just before it went off at 22:30. The wind was variable 3-7 kt, too slow to allow the windvane to work and the boat was drifting in a 1.5 kt current that was generally towards the waypoint. However, the boat was not pointed in that direction. I switched over to the TillerPilot and set a course for 260, close to the waypoint at 270, and the boat picked up another 1 kt speed, aided by the light wind. The boat had travelled more than 80 nm in the past 18h (4.5 kt avg.), the best so far in this passage. At 23:30 the alarm went off on the TillerPilot. The wind is too light and the direction of is variable so there is no way way to steer. I heave to snd let the current carry me, setting an alarm for an hour to see if the situation changes, although I suspect it will not until dawn. A nearby current monitor suggests the current will flow in the general direction of the waypoint for about 2h. At 2:30 a 0.6 kt current was pushing me E with glassy water and zero wind. The current will have veered to the S by 7:00. At 4:30 I was awaken by a gust. The wind was blowing 4 kt with an occasional gust of 7.the boat had gone around in circles for 5.5h, driven only by the currents, and ending up where the wind had stopped blowing early in the evening. I set the sails and managed 0.3 kt in more or less the right direction, against the currents. At least I wasn’t loosing ground. Sunrise should be about 5:45, about an hour from now. I downloaded new GRIBs. They were self-consistent, all predicting single-digit wind the next 24h with gusts of 12 or so. This is in sharp contrast with the forecast from last night, which predicted winds in the 20s. Basically, the forecasts are useless in the Timor Sea. As the horizon starts to light up, I can see a few clouds, the first since leaving Darwin. At 5:25, I have 6 kt of wind from the S giving me a boat speed of 1.5 kt against a current of 0.5 kt for a SOG of 1 kt. I start to see some gusts at thr sunrise of 9 kt. Once the sun was up, the gusts stopped and the wind blew 5-6, barely enough to maintain a course. 272 nm to Ashmore. Looks like it is going to be a crawl today. I laid down for a rest and woke up at 8:15. The wind had increased to 9 kt and backed to 60, so I tacked and set a course of 280 (waypoint at 270). I had been averaging 1.3 kt and now averaged 2.1. The starboard tack also exposed the solar panels. I note the wind speed change and direction were predicted by all of the models (although they predicted about 75 degrees). I will note that the current is starting to help me and is expected to do so until about 13:00 (next 5h). At 9:00, three dolphins started following the boat, about 100’ back, and did so for about 30m. The color of the water has changed … it is more blue. The depth is now 350’. I was contacted by the ABF again via VHF at 9:20, this time apparently a shore radio. They asked the usual questions, but also wanted to know my ETA for Christmas Island. I told them 3-4 weeks. At 9:26 an ABF aircraft buzzed me, so perhaps it was the aircraft that called me. There is only 4 kt of wind, hardly enough to steer. The boat speed is less than 1 kt, but the SOG is over 2 because of a favorable 1.2 kt current. I was about to shake out the second reef, but the lain is luff as is (the wind is insufficient to fill it), so I changed my mind. Most of the propulsion is probably coming from the jib anyway, and it is already slatting when the boat rolls. I’d probably do better to drop the main all together and run with the jib. These are almost good conditions for the asymm, if only I had a little more air. A column of dead air shoots straight up from Cape Londonderry, and is about 90 nm wide. No wind is expected there until Sunday. It looks like I could finish off the last 250 nm Saturday-Monday. I believe I would rather do that rather than burn 25 gal of fuel. I’ll just enjoy the smooth water and laid-back sailing. I might put up the asymm, but I don’t like to fly it at night and it hardly seems worth it for 5h this afternoon. The distance sailed towards Ashmore Reef in the last 23h was 300-256=44 nm. The total distance sailed was 9738-9714=24 nm (24/23=1.0 kt avg.). Note this discrepancy is due to the current.
Comments: Sunset was at 17:22. Remarkable, the wind has been going strong all day and it is still blowing 15 kt with a SOG of 4 that is about to be assisted by the current. This was not predicted by any of the eight weather models. The GRIB was 14h old, so I downloaded new ones. The forecast has once more completely changed. Double digit winds are expected overnight with sustained winds in the 20s all day tomorrow, starting out from the SE, then backing to the E later in the day. The wind strengths are different for each model, but they all forecast winds from the NE to SE. It is 18:15 and for some reason the waves have become higher, causing the boat to roll and the slatting of the sails. I switched from the TillerPilot to the windvane because it looks like there is going to be enough wind. I also set a more southerly course in an effort to take advantage of what wind I have and to try to stop the slatting of the sails. Also, if the wind turns E, I will probably be tacking. I went to sleep at 18:30. The wind was still blowing 15. At a 2h alarm, not much had changed. I set another 2h alarm and woke up just before it went off at 22:30. The wind was variable 3-7 kt, too slow to allow the windvane to work and the boat was drifting in a 1.5 kt current that was generally towards the waypoint. However, the boat was not pointed in that direction. I switched over to the TillerPilot and set a course for 260, close to the waypoint at 270, and the boat picked up another 1 kt speed, aided by the light wind. The boat had travelled more than 80 nm in the past 18h (4.5 kt avg.), the best so far in this passage. At 23:30 the alarm went off on the TillerPilot. The wind is too light and the direction of is variable so there is no way way to steer. I heave to snd let the current carry me, setting an alarm for an hour to see if the situation changes, although I suspect it will not until dawn. A nearby current monitor suggests the current will flow in the general direction of the waypoint for about 2h. At 2:30 a 0.6 kt current was pushing me E with glassy water and zero wind. The current will have veered to the S by 7:00. At 4:30 I was awaken by a gust. The wind was blowing 4 kt with an occasional gust of 7.the boat had gone around in circles for 5.5h, driven only by the currents, and ending up where the wind had stopped blowing early in the evening. I set the sails and managed 0.3 kt in more or less the right direction, against the currents. At least I wasn’t loosing ground. Sunrise should be about 5:45, about an hour from now. I downloaded new GRIBs. They were self-consistent, all predicting single-digit wind the next 24h with gusts of 12 or so. This is in sharp contrast with the forecast from last night, which predicted winds in the 20s. Basically, the forecasts are useless in the Timor Sea. As the horizon starts to light up, I can see a few clouds, the first since leaving Darwin. At 5:25, I have 6 kt of wind from the S giving me a boat speed of 1.5 kt against a current of 0.5 kt for a SOG of 1 kt. I start to see some gusts at thr sunrise of 9 kt. Once the sun was up, the gusts stopped and the wind blew 5-6, barely enough to maintain a course. 272 nm to Ashmore. Looks like it is going to be a crawl today. I laid down for a rest and woke up at 8:15. The wind had increased to 9 kt and backed to 60, so I tacked and set a course of 280 (waypoint at 270). I had been averaging 1.3 kt and now averaged 2.1. The starboard tack also exposed the solar panels. I note the wind speed change and direction were predicted by all of the models (although they predicted about 75 degrees). I will note that the current is starting to help me and is expected to do so until about 13:00 (next 5h). At 9:00, three dolphins started following the boat, about 100’ back, and did so for about 30m. The color of the water has changed … it is more blue. The depth is now 350’. I was contacted by the ABF again via VHF at 9:20, this time apparently a shore radio. They asked the usual questions, but also wanted to know my ETA for Christmas Island. I told them 3-4 weeks. At 9:26 an ABF aircraft buzzed me, so perhaps it was the aircraft that called me. There is only 4 kt of wind, hardly enough to steer. The boat speed is less than 1 kt, but the SOG is over 2 because of a favorable 1.2 kt current. I was about to shake out the second reef, but the lain is luff as is (the wind is insufficient to fill it), so I changed my mind. Most of the propulsion is probably coming from the jib anyway, and it is already slatting when the boat rolls. I’d probably do better to drop the main all together and run with the jib. These are almost good conditions for the asymm, if only I had a little more air. A column of dead air shoots straight up from Cape Londonderry, and is about 90 nm wide. No wind is expected there until Sunday. It looks like I could finish off the last 250 nm Saturday-Monday. I believe I would rather do that rather than burn 25 gal of fuel. I’ll just enjoy the smooth water and laid-back sailing. I might put up the asymm, but I don’t like to fly it at night and it hardly seems worth it for 5h this afternoon. The distance sailed towards Ashmore Reef in the last 23h was 300-256=44 nm. The total distance sailed was 9738-9714=24 nm (24/23=1.0 kt avg.). Note this discrepancy is due to the current.