{"id":2137,"date":"2025-11-24T03:51:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T03:51:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/aegir-ran.com\/?p=2137"},"modified":"2025-11-24T03:57:52","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T03:57:52","slug":"check-in-november-24-2025-330-utc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aegir-ran.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/24\/check-in-november-24-2025-330-utc\/","title":{"rendered":"Check-in November 24, 2025; 3:30 UTC"},"content":{"rendered":"
Current Position: 34 45.157\u2019S 21 33.020\u2019E; Timezone: UTC+2; SOG: 4.3; COG: 284M (255T); TWS: 6; TWD: 006; Current Speed, 0.7 kt; Current Direction, 60; Distance to Waypoint (HB4, Cape Agulhas, 286): 78; Total Miles Sailed: 16298 nm; Engine Hours: 370; Estimate Fuel: 15+9+50;
\nComments: It is 6:30 and the latest forecast is more dire. It is now looking like there will be little wind for 48h. My choices are to pull into Mossel Bay to wait it out (I wouldn\u2019t get there until late tonight) or motor through for at least 24 and perhaps 36h. Drifting amongst all the commercial traffic is not an option. It does not make sense to motor 18h (perhaps 40 nm out of my way) so I can wait 24h in Mossel Bay. It also does not make sense to continue on my course towards land if I commit to motoring (just to cling onto sporadic single-digit wind that is blowing in the wrong direction). The sea should flatten out soon, making motoring easier. It seems U have only one choice after all. I am furling the jib and dropping the main (I will leave the staysail up for stability) and I am setting a course for Cape Agulhas. It is 7:00. The wind has dropped to 5 kt from the W and the 0.8 kt current is almost N. Neither the wind nor the current are of any help getting me to HB. I am 195 nm from Cape Agulhas and am making about 5 kt at 1800 rpm. I feel better about moving along the same path as the commercial traffic. It makes it much easier for us to avoid each other. Also, I seem to be about 5 nm N of most of the traffic. I notice Horizon is about 20 nm N of me (closer to the shore) and is under power. It is smart to be out of the commercial traffic, which I would have done had I known I was going to motor. It is 9:00 and raining lightly again \u2026 nothing threatening. At 11:00, there was 10 kt wind, so I deployed one-third of the Yankee, which helped stabilize the boat (with the staysail) and improved the speed from 5.2 to 5.6. There is usually an update of the ECMWF about 9:00 (and 21:00), so I download a fresh GRIB and AIS data. No surprises \u2026 the wind won\u2019t be back until early Tuesday morning. After that, I will have solid 15\/25 the rest of the way. It looks like if I am at Cape Agulhas about midnight (36h from now), I will have wind. That means I need to average 175\/36=4.9 kt \u2026 which means motoring the whole way. I can see Saphir is 8 nm ahead of me, Horizon is 20 nm NW of me, and the leaders of the 5.80 fleet have skipped PE and are becalmed (doing 1-2 kt in random directions). I don\u2019t envy the 5.80 fleet because they will likely sit there 48h. Paradise Falls is about 100 nm behind me and they must be motoring. It is 13:00 and some of the cloud cover seems to be burning off. It is 14:30 and the boat speed is up (6 kt), which I attribute largely to the calmer sea state. The winds are now down to the low single digits. 155 to Cape Agulhas. I transferred fuel from the main tank to the day tank and got a little water in the trap. That sometimes means I am getting to the bottom of the tank and\/or the boat is rolling and shaking up the bottom of the tank. Both are probably true today as I probably have 18-20 gallons left in the main tank. Sometime in the morning when there is no wind and the sea is even calmer, I will stop the boat and transfer fuel from some of the Jerry cans. Sunset was at 19:17 (22.5e). The current is beginning to rotate to port as I approach the shoals of Cape Agulhas. It is 20:00 and the wind has picked up to 14, but it is only supposed to last for about 3h before it starts dropping to zero by dawn. I passed Mossel Bay about 21:00. It is 00:40 and as expected the wind has dropped to 4 kt. Also, the current has fallen to 0.8 kt. Consequently, the SOG is 4.6 with 100 nm to go to Cape Agulhas. I have entered the \u201cAgulhas Bank\u201d, a shoal area that spreads out the current, which is why it is less than half the speed it has been. Since there is little wind and current, it could take about 100\/4.5=22h to motor to the Cape. By the time I get there, I should have 10 kt of wind and perhaps 120 nm to sail. The current will start out about 0.5 and build to 1.1 or so. The winds will build from 10 to 20. I will have 36h to cover the 120 nm to arrive Wednesday morning, so I will need to average 120\/36=3.3 kt. Most of the distance will be covered directly downwind, so I will be running just the foresails, initially the Yankee and storm staysail, but probably just the storm sail by the end. The point is I will not be in a rush as it will be impossible for me to reach Hout Bay before dark tomorrow, so I will need to slow my roll to arrive Wednesday morning. I note the \u201csqueeze\u201d has begun with the commercial traffic lining up to turn the Agulhas corner. There is steady stream of ships passing me, one every 15 minutes or so, but I am 3-4 nm N of the channel and out of their way. I got up at 5:00 after a night of sleeping 45m intervals. Normally, the intervals would have been dictated by the intervals of ships passing, but they passed in such rapid succession it was impossible to do that. I simply tried to stay out of the shipping lane all together and hoped the ships would \u201cbehave themselves.\u201d The 0.8 kt current has been shifting all night, rotating counterclockwise, and it is now perpendicular to me and running towards the shore. I had to adjust my course accordingly and I am now headed for the waypoint once again, 80 nm away. Sunrise was at 5:22 (31.5e).<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Current Position: 34 45.157\u2019S 21 33.020\u2019E; Timezone: UTC+2; SOG: 4.3; COG: 284M (255T); TWS: 6; TWD: 006; Current Speed, 0.7 kt; Current Direction, 60; Distance to Waypoint (HB4, Cape Agulhas, 286): 78; Total Miles Sailed: 16298 nm; Engine Hours: 370; Estimate Fuel: 15+9+50; Comments: It is 6:30 and the latest forecast is more dire. It … <\/p>\n

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